Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024: 5 Key Seat Battles To Watch Closely

“YOUR VOTE, YOUR VOICE that matters”, so make sure to vote today. Maharashtra is all set for a high-stakes political contest as voters decide the fate of the 288-member legislative assembly. The ruling BJP-led Mahayuti alliance seeks to retain power, while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) aims for a resurgence and the campaign has been marked by rallies from top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and Congress leaders Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. With 4,140 candidates in the fray after withdrawals, the elections promise various battles.

An Election comprises 234 general seats, 29 reserved for Scheduled Castes, and 25 for Scheduled Tribes. The results will play a critical role in shaping the political landscape of the state, with both the BJP and Congress vying for supremacy alongside their respective alliances, further as voters gear up for the big day, highlighting these key constituencies where the results may tip the scales in this closely contested election.

Here are five Key Seat Battles that cannot be missed out

1- Worli: A High-Profile Three-Way Battle

The prestigious Worli constituency in Mumbai is witnessing a strong triangular contest. Aaditya Thackeray (Shiv Sena UBT), the sitting MLA, won the seat in 2019 with a landslide victory. His proactive role during the COVID-19 issues has solidified his reputation among voters. Milind Deora (Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde faction), a former MP with significant urban appeal, seeks capitalization with middle-class support. Sandeep Deshpande (MNS), is known for his focus on local issues, especially infrastructure and housing, his direct approach and work on civic matters have earned him popularity, particularly among Marathi-speaking voters in Worli.

2- Baramati: The Pawar Family Rivalry

Baramati remains a political stronghold of the Pawar family, and this year’s election pits two family members against each other. Ajit Pawar (NCP SP), a political veteran held this seat since 1991 and won decisively in 2019 with over 83% vote share. Yugendra has been preparing for his political debut under the mentorship of Sharad Pawar holding the position of treasurer at Vidya Pratishthan, an educational institution founded by Sharad Pawar. While, Ajit Pawar has been the undisputed leader of this constituency, securing the seat for seven consecutive terms since 1991, following Sharad Pawar’s departure from Congress to form the NCP. In 2019, Ajit Pawar won decisively, garnering nearly 1.95 lakh votes and an overwhelming 83.24 per cent vote share.

3- Vandre East: A Clash of Legacy and Youth Appeal

This constituency is set for an electrifying contest between two dynamic leaders Zeeshan Siddique (Congress), known for his public outreach and the background of the Muslim community, has emerged as a youth favourite for approaching local issues and his active engagement with the public on social media. Varun Sardesai (Shiv Sena UBT), nephew of Uddhav Thackeray, has been a steadfast supporter of Shiv Sena (UBT) during the party’s split in 2022 influenced in Vandre East, drawing support from the Shiv Sena’s traditional voter base.

4- Nagpur South West: Fadnavis’ Stronghold Faces a Test

In this assembly election, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis intended to secure the fourth consecutive term, representing the Nagpur South West constituency since 2009, winning three straight terms. In the 2019 election, Fadnavis triumphed with a margin of over 49,000 votes, his influence in the region is backed by his extensive political career, development initiatives, and strong organisational support within the BJP. Praful Gudadhe of the Congress party, who is known for his grassroots connections capitalise on voter fatigue towards the BJP or dissatisfaction with the current administration regarding urban infrastructure, public services, and concerns over the BJP’s economic policies.

5- Kopri-Pachpakhadi: Mentor vs. Protégé Dynamics

In the Kopri-Pachpakhadi assembly constituency in Thane, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde will face off against Kedar Dighe, the nephew of his political mentor, the late Shiv Sena leader Anand Dighe. Shinde has frequently referred to Anand Dighe as his guiding figure in politics, his connection to Dighe runs deep, even financing the Marathi film Dharmaveer 2, directed by national award-winning director Prasad Oak.

Reasons why the Maharashtra assembly election 2024 is a high-stakes showdown between the constituencies

The Haryana Momentum

It is the first assembly poll held after Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections. The BJP retained Haryana while the National Conference-Congress alliance bagged Jammu and Kashmir in the elections, the results of which were announced last month.

In the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, the BJP lost Haryana as well and Maharashtra won only five of 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. The BJP won all 10 Lok Sabha seats of Haryana in the 2019 general elections. In Maharashtra, the BJP won just nine of the 28 seats contested in 2024, as against 23 of the 25 seats contested in the 2019 general elections.

BJP Expanding Influence

The BJP’s fight in Maharashtra is indirect with the Congress along with the regional players, according to political analysts. For quite some time now, the saffron party has been keen to consolidate its position in Maharashtra, where it has faced many challenges from regional players. The election will test the BJP’s ability to stay in power with the help of regional parties – the Shiv Sena and NCP factions with a victory in Maharashtra would bolster the BJP’s reach beyond its traditional holds in the north.

Factionalism

The five years of the outgoing assembly in Maharashtra were marred by political turmoil. The state had three different chief ministers. Two major parties – the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party(NCP) – split leading to alliances in power and the opposition. Today’s polls are the first assembly elections in the state after the two major parties split and the outcomes will reveal which faction holds sway over the popular base.

Economy and other issues

Maharashtra, one of India’s wealthiest states, is faced with unique economic challenges, including agrarian distress and unemployment, the outcome will also depend on these factors. Among other issues, a demand for Maratha reservation in government jobs and education has been a major issue in the run to polls. The Maratha community constitutes about 28 per cent of the state’s population and plays a crucial role in deciding the outcome.

The BJP, which dominated Maharashtra over the past decade by following disappointing Lok Sabha results in Maharashtra in 2024 where its tally fell to 9 from the previous 23, the party is under pressure to reclaim its standing, with the Haryana victory acting as a morale-booster for the cadre.

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